Snowtober

This Halloween snowstorm left quite a mess for the "trick or treaters". Saturday nights storm left Plymouth, NH with over 6 in. of snow and white-out conditions throughout the night.

This image was taken in Tilton, NH around 11:30pm when I got out of work on Saturday October 29th.

Quick but Important Thought

If you are someone that is not extremely familiar with the weather and its power, just know that you are not alone. My best advice to you is to look to FEMA and other "disaster assistance" organizations. They all provide amazing information on how to keep you and your family/friends safe come any type of natural disaster. Citizen Corps is also another great organization for this, and they are found all over the country. You can look to them for assistance and even volunteering opportunities.

I recently have become very interested in these types of organizations, so don't be surprised if some of my Blog posts include certain facts that I have been collecting from them along the way. Twitter has been an extremely beneficial source for all of this, giving me the "breaking news" type deal about what goes on in terms of these organizations, and the world as a whole.

Since my last post was about the 2011 Hurricane Season, here is a great example on how to keep your family safe with Hurricane preparedness. Click on the link below. The link was found by me on the Citizen Corps Twitter account in order to give credit where its due!

http://www.ready.gov/america/beinformed/hurricanes.html

First TS of the 2011 Hurricane Season!

Hurricane season has arrived! For some this is a very scary season to face and for the weather nerds, fascinating. But no matter how you feel about it, its inevitable... Especially when the first named storm of the season comes about.. And in this case, that would be Tropical Storm Arlene.

Arlene was named last night and is located off the east coast of Mexico. As of 11am this morning, Advisory Number 4 was issued by the National Weather Service stating that this Tropical Storm is gradually strengthening as time goes on. Last night, the storm was not very organized but as of this morning, conditions are looking a lot more favorable for some more organization and strengthening. The maximum sustained winds as reported by our Hurricane Hunters is up to 50mph at this time, moving WNW at 8mph and the minimum center of low pressure is 1000mb.

With that being said, the areas of concern are Tuxpan, Mexico and climbs up North to La Cruz, Mexico. This broad area has been issued with a series of both Tropical Storm and even Hurricane warnings. The Hurricane warnings are due to the possibly of Hurricane force conditions possible in the noted areas as well as the anticipation and concern that this storm could indeed strengthen up to a Hurricane force (although not very likely at this time). As for the US, a small area of the southernmost portion of Texas around Brownsville has been shaded under low impact concern possible for this storm. Rain is the main concern with this, wind is not expected to play a factor for Southern Texas as of right now. The impact areas of concern are shown in the figure below for more information.

As always, to get the latest advisories on TS Arlene, visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/index.shtml? The next full advisory will be issued at 1:00pm CDT which is 2pm for me, ET.

And also, tune in to: http://www.wunderground.com/wxradio/wubroadcast.html for a special live broadcast about TS Arlene by two Meterologists from Wunderground, Dr. Jeff Masters and Angela Fritz at 4pm ET and 1pm PT, should be very interesting for all you weather lovers!

June 15, 2011

The day the Bruins won the Stanley Cup was a very exciting night for me I must say! However, I was a little distracted before and during the game due to the thunderstorms that the Tampa Bay and Polk County area's were experiencing.

I went outside to go for a run before the hockey game when I noticed a very dark cloud with an interesting shape. I also saw some of the cumulus clouds building and could tell right away that the evening would bring about some active weather for sure. It was very interesting to just stand outside and watch the thunderstorms building right over my house (I obviously didn't end up going on my run). In fact, watching the developing storm was so interesting to me that I ended up standing outside for longer than I should have been. A huge lightning bolt appeared over my head with a loud crack immediately after and I knew it was time to head inside.

Once inside, my droid starting going off every half an hour letting me know that the severe thunderstorm warnings were being extended longer and longer into the nighttime. By the time the Bruins had won the Stanley Cup the thunder and lightning was continuing to affect the Polk County area. The next day reported thousands of lightning strikes from these storms. A very electric night indeed! Hope you enjoy the pictures that I took before it became too unsafe to be outside!

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Active Summer!??

Here is a quick video that I took of some lightning across the lake from my house in Auburndale, Florida. Although this storm did not make it directly toward the path of my house, I am hoping that this is a promising start to an active summer, with better footage to come!

Forecast Journal Synoptic II

Synoptic II Journal Entry #2 Forecast period: 0Z April 12th- 0z April 14th

Tonight (0z April 12th - 12Z April 12th): Steady 10mph Southwesterly winds shifting Northwesterly by morning. Slight chance of showers after 2am due to lingering clouds throughout the evening, with some clearing by morning. Low 47°.

Tomorrow (12Z April 12th - 0Z April 13th): A blend of sun and clouds during the day with some increasing clouds in the later afternoon. Northerly wind at 10mph. High 59°. 20% chance of showers after 4pm with precipitation accumulations of less then a tenth of an inch.

Tomorrow Night (0Z April 13th - 12Z April 13th): 10mph Northeasterly winds calming to about 5mph throughout the evening. Mostly cloudy skies with a 40% chance of showers after 2am. Low 39°.

Wednesday (12Z April 13th - 0Z April 14th): Cloudy most of the day with a few possible breaks of sun after 2pm. High temperature of 46°. East wind 5-10mph with slightly gustier periods throughout the day. Showers likely, a 70% chance of precipitation accumulation of up to a tenth of an inch possible.

Initial Conditions (that lead to public forecast)

Starting with the initial conditions of April 11th visibly seen on satellite images, there was a high pressure system located over the interior portions of the United States. This made conditions relatively quiet for most of the central U.S. However, in our Northeast area, there was a low pressure system moving eastward off of the Gulf of Maine. When viewing the IR satellite, looking back in time (12 hours), you could see the higher and colder cloud tops located around the areas of Plymouth which corresponded to the timing that we experienced a few thunderstorms earlier that morning. The water vapor image portrayed a nice, cyclonic circulation over Quebec. The other more evident feature was the moisture moving out of our area throughout the day along with the low pressure system (I knew that this would play an important part in my forecast). The radar imagery across the US displayed the precipitation that we were experiencing on this day tapering off and becoming very "jagged" (feature-wise) as the day moved on.

In terms of the initial conditions of the upper atmosphere. At 250mb, there was a fairly large trough that began positively tilted on April 10th. A strong jet over the middle portions of the U.S. caused the trough to neutralize in its orientation. Finally, the trough lifted-out around the time of my forecast period. For 500mb, I started looking at the night of April 10th. When looking towards the Gulf it was extremely evident that there was warm, moist air feeding off of the Gulf to drive the storms that were seen in Iowa / around the Midwest that day. The 850mb analysis reiterated the warm air advection from the Gulf . The 850 low pressure portrayed a nice height gradient, which really supplied the moisture off of the gulf to push some warm air advection even as high as New England into the morning of my forecast period which is why we experienced a few thunderstorms.

Starting the forecast....

Around 10:30 the morning of April 11th, there were thunderstorms moving through the area. However, the storms cleared out pretty quickly and there was some cloud clearing by noon with lots of evaporation taking place within Plymouth as a result. This would have been a big player on the days high temperature, however the clouds (although they cleared slightly), continued to linger around Plymouth, so we were only able to obtain a high in the mid 50's.

When making the overnight forecast for the 11th, I was looking toward the GFS. I saw some heavier precipitation on the 6hr left over around 6Z. I decided to forecast for a slight chance of rain overnight. With the low pressure system continuing to pass over the Plymouth area that night, I noticed a wind shift, so I accounted for the Northwesterly winds blowing at a steady 10mph. In terms of the overnight low the forecast Skew-T that I was looking at from the NAM, did not show a temperature drop until right before 12Z. I decided to take that value and use the mix out method and refer to MOS in order to come up with a slightly warm overnight low of 47°.

For Tuesday's forecast, when I started to account for the high temperature for the day after using the mix out method, I came up with a high of 59°. I decided to keep this temperature although 700mb relative humidity was aiming towards a cloudier day, I did not reduce the temperature for clouds because I noticed that Plymouth was going to "dry-up" in terms of the relative humidity just around the time where Plymouth experiences its warmest part of the day. When checking MOS and 6-hr precipitation, I noticed that both MOS and the GFS itself had a trace of some precipitation occurring within the later afternoon hours. I decided to call for a 10% slight chance of precipitation. In terms of the winds, due to another low pressure system moving to the south of Plymouth, I also accounted for another wind shift of NE from NW during that Tuesday.

Tuesday night's forecast was definitely a tricky one especially in terms of the overnight low temperature. I had forecasted for clouds all night with a possibility of some cooling due to a chance of precipitation (40%). However, the 850mb temperatures were fairly warm overnight. I continued to keep what I had in mind for the winds, precipitation, clouds, etc. And after using the mix out method due to all of this, I checked with MOS and found a sort of an average of 39° for the overnight low to play it safe.

For Wednesday, I first looked at the 700mb relative humidity. I saw a break in the humidity around 18Z however, due to the rest of the conditions I considered while forecasting, I did not exactly make this break in the clouds a large player in my forecast. 6hr. precipitation was showing a decent amount of precipitation and when I was looking at the vorticity, I saw that the vorticity maximum was increasing and reaching our area throughout the day. Also, looking at the 850mb analysis, the 850 Low looked like it was going to linger around the area, which gave me even more of an incentive to give a 90% chance of showers on Wednesday. My high temperature of 46° consisted of using the mix out method and taking off 10° for clouds and the likely chance of showers.

Forecast Verification

For the April 11th-12th overnight low, I forecasted 47° with a POP of 30. The actual was 46° and there was a trace of precipitation (100%).

On Tuesday April 12th I forecasted the high temperature of 59° with a POP of 10. The actual was dead on at 59° however there was no trace of precipitation.

Tuesday night, my forecast was a low temperature of 39° with a POP of 40. The actual was 38°, precipitation was zero, but a trace was recorded.

Wednesday, I forecasted for a high of 46° with a POP of 90. Once again, I was right on with the high of 46° and there was precipitation recorded for that day (100%).

When I had verified my forecast, I was pleased with my forecasted temperatures because if they were not dead on, they were within the ballpark of the actual recorded temperatures. I do take a lot into consideration when forecasting for low and high temperatures. I like using the mix out method and then modifying it because I can look at what I mix out to be, and then consider what else is going on for that period. Cloud cover, winds, any precipitation, etc. are all areas that I look at when I "tweak" my temperature forecasts. The other thing that I had worked on since my last forecast journal was taking MOS into consideration instead of just what the National Weather Service was calling for. Looking back on my first journal, I had mentioned that MOS was definitely something I should start taking a look at. I am glad to say that I worked on doing this because MOS really helped me out for this forecast period.

For areas of improvement, I want to this time consider precipitation forecasting. I think that I had relied too heavily on the GFS, especially in terms of forecasting for precipitation. If I saw 6hr. precipitation shading even on the boarder of Plymouth, I felt like I had to forecast for at least a POP of 10. I have also noticed that 6hr. precipitation is really the only factor I look into when forecasting for precipitation. After viewing many of the weather discussions this semester, I realize that I need to start considering variables such as: When a front is going to be passing over our area and what time, upper level dynamics, soundings (with something as simple as if they are dry or not), ensembles, etc. This is something that I have been working on since this forecast period and will continue to do so to enhance my forecasting skills from here on out.

Forecast Journal Synoptic II

Synoptic II Journal Entry #1 --> Forecast period: 0Z March 1st- 0z March 3rd

Tonight (0z March 1st - 12Z March 1st): Few clouds in the early evening hours with a 30% chance of some snowfall. No accumulation expected. Skies gradually clearing overnight. Low temperature of 25° with winds out of the West at 5-10mph

Tomorrow: Clear skies with a high temperature of 36° expected. Light Northwesterly winds throughout the day eventually shifting Southwesterly into the evening. No precipitation expected.

Tomorrow Night: Low temperature of 20°. Southwesterly winds around 5-7mph expected, with some increasing cloud cover overnight. No precipitation expected.

Wednesday: Partly cloudy skies early becoming cloudy by the afternoon. High temperature of 36° with a 20% chance of some snowfall occurring after a cold front moves through the area in the mid-afternoon hours. No accumulation expected. Winds will be out of the Northwest up to 15mph.


Weather Observations (that lead to public forecast)

My forecasting method for this particular forecasting period stayed consistent throughout the entire period of my forecast. I started by observing the current conditions of Plymouth, NH on Monday, Feb 28th.

From there, I kept the current conditions in mind and used the "850 Method" for forecasting the overnight low temperature. When looking at the 850mb analysis, I look to two different areas. One is the Vortex website in order to determine the minimum 850 temperature and for the other, I used the PSU EWALL to look at 850mb temperature as well as probability and precipitation amounts. When taking the coldest 850mb temperature and converting it to °F, I had to adjust the overnight minimum temperature that I had originally calculated. I then looked at other factors such as the 10m winds from the Texastornado website and saw some light and variable winds could be expected. I then took into account any cloud cover, by looking at 700mb Relative Humidity on the same website as well as the Low-Upper Level Cloud forecast given by the PSU E-WALL. I noticed that some cloud cover was expected to increase into the early morning hours, so I deducted 5° from my coldest 850mb temperature. Afterward, taking into account the current observations of Plymouth that Monday afternoon I had to deduct a few more degrees for some fresh snow cover that our area had. I also used a persistence method, to give myself a 20% chance of precipitation occurring overnight. Finally, my overnight public forecast was created (above).

In terms of the Tuesday forecast. I used the same "850 Method" but this time for the daytime maximum. In terms of the models and what to look at for, I went to the same areas: 700mb Relative Humidity and the low-upper level cloud forecast to determine cloud cover and 10m winds to forecast the wind. However, I also looked more closely to the 850mb upper air analysis and noticed some indication of cold air advection in the Plymouth area. Taking all of this into account and the fact that I noticed 10mph winds out of the Northwest with clear skies, I was able to adjust my daytime maximum temperature by subtracting about 5°, and create the rest of my public forecast.

For the Tuesday night low, again I looked to the same method. I noticed some increasing cloud cover overnight, as compared to the clear sky forecast I had made during the day. I also looked to the 850 method for the overnight low temperature. Once again, I discovered some warm air advection moving into the area and was able to adjust my overnight minimum temperature. I found Southwesterly winds on the 10m wind charts, which corresponded to the warm air advection that I found. And finally, I saw no indication of precipitation, so I was able to reassure that I could forecast a probability of 0%.

On Wednesday, I looked at the same charts and used the same methods when forecasting the daytime maximum temperature, winds, clouds, etc. However, when looking at the PSU EWALL, I noticed a probability of some precipitation occurring within that day. I then looked to the Short Range Surface forecast on the National Weather Service's website and saw a cold front. I took into account the cold front and cloud cover, as well as a vorticity analysis for that day, and forecasted a 20% chance of snow.

Forecast Verification

For the Feb 28th-March 1st overnight low: I had forecasted 25° with a 30% probability of precipitation. The actual temperature was 23° with 0 precipitation. However, there was a slight trace.

Tuesday: I had forecasted a temperature of 36° with no precipitation. The verification was a high temperature of 32° and no precipitation.

Tuesday Night: My forecast was a low temperature of 20° with no precipitation. The verification was a low temperature that got down to 5° with no precipitation.

Wednesday: I forecasted a high temperature of 36° with a 20% chance of precipitation. The verification was 38° with only a trace of precipitation.

In terms of my forecast, I was very pleased with the results. The only outlier was the Tuesday night low temperature. The winds went calm that night and the cloud cover did not exactly increase (like I had forecasted) until the daytime hours. I believe that overall for this particular forecast period, my methods were about where they should be. However, since there is always room for improvement, looking back, I realized that I did not exactly check my forecasts for validity with the Model Output Statistics. If I had, I could have possibly been able to adjust my forecasts accordingly, not only to help me with Tuesday night's low temperature, but for my entire forecast in general. I might have been able to get a little "closer" to the actual verification. I definitely plan on taking advantage of the models as well as experimenting with new techniques to enhance my forecasting skills.